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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model