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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.55 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model