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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to CIN 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 42 for 13 yards (82-L.Paulsen).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.41 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model