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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Atlanta Falcons 33

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 4-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model