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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Atlanta Falcons 36

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 24 for 11 yards (21-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP