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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Atlanta Falcons 36

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 13 for 7 yards (21-D.Trufant).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP