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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 5 at the 44
Atlanta Falcons 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7
What Actually Happened
(3:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at CIN 49 for -5 yards (97-G.Atkins).
The Three Options
GO
+0.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.64 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.71 EP
KICK
-0.02 EP
- 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
- 54% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT
+0.47 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
