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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(11:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model