4th & Data
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DET
49.5%
DAL
50.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.184 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.156 EPA/dropback
  • DAL defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
DAL 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Out Shoulder
Michael Roberts TE Out Knee
Jarrad Davis LB Questionable Knee
Golden Tate WR Questionable Hip

DAL

Maliek Collins DT Out Knee
Travis Frederick C Out Illness
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Ankle
Antwaun Woods DT Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
DAL 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:34 FG DAL (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DET 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 00:30 TD DET (:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-94-R.Gregory, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. DET 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 11:06 FG DAL (11:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DET 7 – DAL 6
  • Q2 02:54 FG DET (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:48 TD DAL (1:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – DAL 12
  • Q3 03:01 TD DAL (3:01) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-G.Swaim for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [42-D.Kennard]. DET 10 – DAL 19
  • Q4 14:26 TD DET (14:26) 33-K.Johnson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-38-J.Heath was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DET 16 – DAL 20
  • Q4 05:52 FG DAL (5:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Injury updates: Jeff Heath has a shoulder injury; his return is questionable. Quandre Diggs has a hand injury; his return is questionable. DET 17 – DAL 23
  • Q4 02:24 TD DET (2:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – DAL 23
  • Q4 00:03 FG DAL (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DET 24 – DAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (12:54) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to DET 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-38-J.Heath.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 54%

    (6:47) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 31 yards to DAL 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (11:06) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:12) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to DAL 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:08) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DAL 36, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (3:16) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DET 1 for 2 yards (40-J.Davis). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis), recovered by DAL-89-B.Jarwin at DET 1. The ball was fumbled at the 1; ball bounced into the end zone; by rule ball placed back at the 1; ball recorded by Dallas.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (5:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Injury updates: Jeff Heath has a shoulder injury; his return is questionable. Quandre Diggs has a hand injury; his return is questionable.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.