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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 45

Detroit Lions 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model