Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 62

Detroit Lions 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

(:12) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to DAL 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.24 EP
75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -1.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model