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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 88

Detroit Lions 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DAL 36, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 88, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model