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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to DET 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-38-J.Heath.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP