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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model