Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 14

(7:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 46 for 5 yards (46-L.Rhodes, 49-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.55 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model