4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

HOU
37.3%
IND
62.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

HOU

DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Thumb
Kayvon Webster CB Questionable Achilles
Shareece Wright CB Questionable Shoulder

IND

Jack Doyle TE Out Hip
Joe Haeg T Out Ankle
Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Calf
Quincy Wilson CB Out Concussion
Anthony Castonzo T Out Hamstring
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee
Marlon Mack RB Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Walker LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 37
–
IND 34

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 TD IND (11:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 05:30 TD HOU (5:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck Aborted. 78-R.Kelly FUMBLES at IND 0, RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at IND 0. TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – IND 7
  • Q1 01:50 TD HOU (1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – IND 7
  • Q2 01:13 TD HOU (1:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – IND 7
  • Q2 00:06 FG IND (:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. HOU 21 – IND 10
  • Q3 06:45 TD HOU (6:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 27 – IND 10
  • Q3 05:21 TD IND (5:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 28 – IND 16
  • Q4 07:45 TD IND (7:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 28 – IND 23
  • Q4 03:02 FG HOU (3:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 31 – IND 23
  • Q4 00:51 TD IND (:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 21-N.Hines for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 31 – IND 29
  • Q5 06:04 FG IND (6:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. HOU 31 – IND 34
  • Q5 01:54 FG HOU (1:54) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 34 – IND 34
  • Q5 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 37 – IND 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 20 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 34%

    (5:44) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to IND 2, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-23-J.Bademosi.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (14:20) 2-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 44%

    (12:05) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. HOU-52-B.Peters was injured during the play.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:58) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 46 for 5 yards (46-L.Rhodes, 49-M.Adams).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-J.Akins to IND 30 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II). IND-23-K.Moore II was injured during the play. HOU-64-S.Kelemete was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 39%

    (2:52) 2-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum. PENALTY on HOU-21-T.Ervin, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at HOU 10.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:18) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to IND 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for 19 yards (28-A.Blue, 33-A.Moore).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 89%

    (3:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.