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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 40

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-J.Akins to IND 30 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore II). IND-23-K.Moore II was injured during the play. HOU-64-S.Kelemete was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model