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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 28

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 2-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum. PENALTY on HOU-21-T.Ervin, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at HOU 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model