Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 59

Houston Texans 28 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(14:18) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to IND 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for 19 yards (28-A.Blue, 33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.30 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model