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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 49

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to IND 2, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-23-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model