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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 24

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:55) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 88-De.Thomas to KC 21 for 3 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.36 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model