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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Monday 2018-10-01 · 20:15 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
67.6%
DEN
32.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.506 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel

DEN

Jake Butt TE Out Knee
Tramaine Brock CB Doubtful Thigh
Adam Jones CB Questionable Thigh
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Knee
Dymonte Thomas S Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 27
–
DEN 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:38 FG DEN (11:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. KC 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 06:07 FG KC (6:07) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 09:42 TD KC (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – DEN 3
  • Q2 06:47 TD DEN (6:47) 28-R.Freeman right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:04 FG DEN (:04) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. KC 10 – DEN 13
  • Q3 09:35 FG KC (9:35) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – DEN 13
  • Q3 02:09 TD DEN (2:09) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-E.Murray, Defensive Offside, declined. KC 13 – DEN 19
  • Q4 12:52 FG DEN (12:52) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. KC 13 – DEN 23
  • Q4 06:30 TD KC (6:30) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – DEN 23
  • Q4 01:43 TD KC (1:43) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%

    (11:38) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 36 for 2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (6:07) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:46) 1-M.King punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill to DEN 41 for 37 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (4:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (:18) 1-M.King punts 37 yards to KC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 20 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 24-A.Jones to DEN 24 for 2 yards (84-D.Harris; 35-C.Ward).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 86%

    (:55) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 88-De.Thomas to KC 21 for 3 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (:04) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (9:35) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

    (6:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (12:52) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:18) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to DEN 32 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:43) 1-M.King punts 35 yards to KC 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at DEN 36 for 12 yards (22-O.Scandrick).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.88 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to KC 19 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at KC 25. 50-J.Houston to KC 25 for no gain (72-G.Bolles). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton.