Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 75

Denver Broncos 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(4:43) 1-M.King punts 35 yards to KC 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model