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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 76

Denver Broncos 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at DEN 36 for 12 yards (22-O.Scandrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -1.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model