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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model