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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 73

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 1-M.King punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill to DEN 41 for 37 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model