Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 83

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 38

(11:50) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 38, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 43 for 5 yards (35-W.Aikens; 44-S.Anthony).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model