Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- NE offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Tom Brady (NE): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- MIA defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
MIA
NE
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:30 FG NE (5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. MIA 0 – NE 3
- Q2 12:11 TD NE (12:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 84-C.Patterson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 70th different career TD target, ties NFL record (Testaverde). MIA 0 – NE 9
- Q2 07:36 TD NE (7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 16
- Q2 00:23 TD NE (:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. MIA 0 – NE 23
- Q3 06:54 TD NE (6:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-R.Quinn]. MIA 0 – NE 30
- Q4 13:48 TD NE (13:48) 26-S.Michel left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26-Michel 1st career TD. MIA 0 – NE 37
- Q4 02:49 TD MIA (2:49) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 21-F.Gore for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NE 38
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%
(12:11) 2-M.Haack punts 26 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
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Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(5:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(3:37) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NE 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 35 for 9 yards (92-J.Denney; 15-A.Wilson).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(14:20) 2-M.Haack punts 51 yards to NE 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 33 for 24 yards (34-S.Perry; 92-J.Denney).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%
(10:56) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to NE 23, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
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Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:50) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to MIA 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 36 for 12 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(5:58) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to NE 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 30 for no gain (35-W.Aikens). PENALTY on NE-27-J.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 30.
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Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:16) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 40 for 11 yards (43-N.Ebner; 83-D.Allen).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(11:50) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 38, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 43 for 5 yards (35-W.Aikens; 44-S.Anthony).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 27%
(6:43) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-K.Stills to NE 39 for 11 yards (50-N.Grigsby).