Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 3

(3:37) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NE 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-C.Jones to NE 35 for 9 yards (92-J.Denney; 15-A.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model