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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to LAC 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to SF 32 for 56 yards (5-B.Pinion).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model