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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 16:25 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SF
31.3%
LAC
68.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.299 vs C.J. Beathard (SF) -0.169 EPA/dropback (SF starting C.J. Beathard in place of Jimmy Garoppolo)
  • SF offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 20
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SF

Joshua Garnett G Out Toe
Richard Sherman CB Out Calf
Jaquiski Tartt S Doubtful Shoulder
Antone Exum S Questionable Quadricep
Matt Breida RB Questionable Knee
Adrian Colbert S Questionable Hip
Alfred Morris RB Questionable Knee

LAC

Joe Barksdale T Out Knee
Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Kyzir White LB Out Knee
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Knee
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 27
–
LAC 29

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:12 TD SF (14:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Exum at LAC 32. 38-A.Exum for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 03:57 TD SF (3:57) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LAC 0
  • Q1 00:48 TD LAC (:48) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – LAC 6
  • Q2 05:02 FG SF (5:02) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 17 – LAC 6
  • Q2 00:53 TD LAC (:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 30-A.Ekeler for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – LAC 12
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SF 17 – LAC 17
  • Q3 10:40 TD LAC (10:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 28-M.Gordon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – LAC 23
  • Q3 07:48 FG LAC (7:48) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SF 17 – LAC 26
  • Q3 02:58 TD SF (2:58) 3-C.Beathard pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane]. SF 23 – LAC 26
  • Q4 12:43 FG SF (12:43) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 27 – LAC 26
  • Q4 07:44 FG LAC (7:44) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SF 27 – LAC 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 18-D.Pettis to SF 14 for -3 yards (57-J.Brown). SF-18-D.Pettis was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to LAC 37 for -1 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:37) 17-P.Rivers up the middle to LAC 47 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (7:06) 6-C.Sturgis 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (5:02) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to LAC 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to SF 32 for 56 yards (5-B.Pinion).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 17 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to LAC 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to LAC 49 for 21 yards (47-E.Lee).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (7:48) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LAC 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to LAC 25 for 6 yards (30-T.Powell).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:45) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:17) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to SF 18, Center-47-M.Windt. 81-T.Taylor to SF 26 for 8 yards (30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 26.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (12:43) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:44) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LAC 39, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%

    (3:57) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to SF 7, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-30-A.Ekeler.