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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LAC 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 20-D.King to LAC 25 for 6 yards (30-T.Powell).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP