Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(3:45) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.93 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model