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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-C.Sturgis 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP