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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 29 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to SF 7, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-30-A.Ekeler.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.58 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP