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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 17-P.Rivers up the middle to LAC 47 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model