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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 47
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0
What Actually Happened
(13:10) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to CLE 45 for 2 yards (90-E.Ogbah).
The Three Options
GO
+0.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -3.17 EP
KICK
-1.68 EP
- 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT
-0.86 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.86 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
