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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BAL
56.1%
CLE
43.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BAL

Anthony Averett CB Out Hamstring
Tim Williams LB Out Hamstring
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Foot
Brandon Carr CB Questionable Knee
Anthony Levine LB Questionable Hamstring
Willie Henry DT Questionable Abdomen
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Foot
Alex Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Za'Darius Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

CLE

James Burgess LB Out Knee
Christian Kirksey LB Questionable Illness
Damarious Randall S Questionable Heel

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 9
–
CLE 12

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:41 FG BAL (8:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:44 TD CLE (:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 81-R.Higgins for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-Z.Smith]. BAL 3 – CLE 6
  • Q3 07:32 FG CLE (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on BAL-14-T.White, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 3 – CLE 9
  • Q3 00:56 FG BAL (:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – CLE 9
  • Q4 00:56 FG BAL (:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – CLE 9
  • Q5 00:06 FG CLE (:06) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. BAL 9 – CLE 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (13:10) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to CLE 45 for 2 yards (90-E.Ogbah).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 47%

    (11:52) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-86-N.Boyle.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 83%

    (8:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 42%

    (3:01) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to BAL 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-T.White.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 26%

    (:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 10 for no gain (49-C.Board). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 48 for 11 yards (26-D.Kindred).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 43 for 15 yards (47-C.Hughlett). FUMBLES (47-C.Hughlett), recovered by BAL-40-K.Young at BAL 42. 40-K.Young to BAL 42 for no gain (36-J.McKinnon).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 22%

    (6:13) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to BAL 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-T.White.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:09) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 22 for 12 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 47-D.Turner).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%

    (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on BAL-14-T.White, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 64 yards to BAL 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 12 for 10 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 26 for 13 yards (13-R.Streater; 59-D.Hines).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:39) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to CLE 42 for 25 yards (55-G.Avery). PENALTY on BAL-40-K.Young, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 44.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (:09) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.