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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model