Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(3:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to BAL 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-T.White.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.94 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model