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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on BAL-14-T.White, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model