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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-86-N.Boyle.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model