4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP