Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Cleveland Browns 9

(11:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model