4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 26 for 13 yards (13-R.Streater; 59-D.Hines).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model