Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Cleveland Browns 9

(7:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model