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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.31 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP