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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 10 for no gain (49-C.Board). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model