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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 96

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 48 for 11 yards (26-D.Kindred).

The Three Options

GO -3.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 96, worth -5.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 53, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model