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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 2

Houston Texans 7 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP